Putin quietly conquers Belarus: report

The American think tank Institute for the Study of War ( ISW ) has drawn attention to political trends in Belarus in recent years. Researchers speak of Russian President Vladimir Putin's "quiet takeover" of the neighboring country and the serious consequences that this takeover could have for NATO.

According to the authors, Russia used the political crisis in Belarus after the 2020 “stolen elections” to increase its influence in the country. With Moscow’s support, President Alexander Lukashenko suppressed protests. Russia then deployed its troops in Belarus and in the winter of 2021/2022, using the pretext of fictitious military exercises, invaded Ukraine from Belarusian soil with about 30,000 soldiers.

Russia, according to analysts, is pursuing three goals: military, economic, and political absorption of Belarus. This would allow Russia to "prepare for future wars more quickly than it would be possible alone."

According to analysts, the military integration phase is almost complete: Russia plans to permanently station its troops in Belarus, including the air force and, possibly, new ground brigades, as well as strategic nuclear weapons.

Economic integration implies the creation of common markets for gas, electricity, and labor, which will unite the economies of Russia and Belarus into a single system.

The Kremlin may in the future create a joint court and parliament, as well as a standing committee of the "Union" of the two countries, including one with legislative powers.

"Politicians need to start planning for a future where Belarus is not just an occupied country, but a de facto continuation of Russia," the report says.

Experts are particularly concerned about the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus.

"In 2023, Moscow deployed Russian-controlled tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus after forcing Belarus to adopt constitutional amendments that revoke Belarus' status as a non-nuclear state," analysts noted.